## Section: Research Program

### Markov models

Participants : Brice Olivier, Thibaud Rahier, Jean-Baptiste Durand, Florence Forbes, Karina Ashurbekova.

**Key-words:**
graphical models, Markov properties, hidden Markov models, clustering, missing data, mixture of distributions, EM algorithm, image analysis, Bayesian
inference.

Graphical modelling provides a diagrammatic representation of the dependency structure of a joint probability distribution, in the form of a network or graph depicting the local relations among variables. The graph can have directed or undirected links or edges between the nodes, which represent the individual variables. Associated with the graph are various Markov properties that specify how the graph encodes conditional independence assumptions.

It is the conditional independence assumptions that give graphical models their fundamental modular structure, enabling computation of globally interesting quantities from local specifications. In this way graphical models form an essential basis for our methodologies based on structures.

The graphs can be either directed, e.g. Bayesian Networks, or undirected, e.g. Markov Random Fields. The specificity of Markovian models is that the dependencies between the nodes are limited to the nearest neighbor nodes. The neighborhood definition can vary and be adapted to the problem of interest. When parts of the variables (nodes) are not observed or missing, we refer to these models as Hidden Markov Models (HMM). Hidden Markov chains or hidden Markov fields correspond to cases where the ${z}_{i}$'s in (1) are distributed according to a Markov chain or a Markov field. They are a natural extension of mixture models. They are widely used in signal processing (speech recognition, genome sequence analysis) and in image processing (remote sensing, MRI, etc.). Such models are very flexible in practice and can naturally account for the phenomena to be studied.

Hidden Markov models are very useful in modelling spatial dependencies but these dependencies and the possible existence of hidden variables are also responsible for a typically large amount of computation. It follows that the statistical analysis may not be straightforward. Typical issues are related to the neighborhood structure to be chosen when not dictated by the context and the possible high dimensionality of the observations. This also requires a good understanding of the role of each parameter and methods to tune them depending on the goal in mind. Regarding estimation algorithms, they correspond to an energy minimization problem which is NP-hard and usually performed through approximation. We focus on a certain type of methods based on variational approximations and propose effective algorithms which show good performance in practice and for which we also study theoretical properties. We also propose some tools for model selection. Eventually we investigate ways to extend the standard Hidden Markov Field model to increase its modelling power.